Legs of the insane tinker drop rate

Hi guys,  I'm at 101 Devour spawns now.  Wondering if anyone ever hit 200-300?  It feels like they are never going to drop.  I did get one before from the other spawn that has it,  the one with the pixie dragons or whatever they are called.  Took 70-75ish I'd guess that time.  This time I know exactly how many times I've done it because I am saving the gem bag to keep track.  Just wondering if anyone else has any thoughts on this because my god it's terrible.

Yui_Zii_Ariya said:

As per all things RnG based the drop rate of individual items is incredibly subjective.  From my experience the Drop rate for Artifacts from both the Wyvern and the Devourer are surprisingly high with maybe 1 in 15 runs getting a drop.  The drop you receive is another RnG roll altogether.

Have you been recording how many Storm Callers and Pillars of Strength you have got?

Realistically you could do the spawn for the rest of your UO days and never get a set purely down to unlucky dice rolls.  RnG is what it is as much as we all hate it.

1 storm caller in 108 runs and no Pillars of Strength.  I've gotten some gears for Dawns music box.

The problem is the RnG code is still from the 90's when this game was developed.  Back when processing power and memory was fraction of what it is today.  That said,  the algorithm uses smaller bit sizes and is very limited.

I've only done these two about 30 times between Wyvern and Devourer and yet to see one of the 3 drops so I think 1 out of 15 is a pretty low guess at drop rate. I'm curious what it really is.

It took me 212 kills to get legs to drop for me all on devourer. I think I got 5 or 6 of the throwing wep in that time. There were a few times it died by the stairs and I couldn't loot as well so might of missed some but I generally have terrible luck at drops on this game. 

Yui_Zii_Ariya said:

And herein lies the subjective aspect of RnG.  Even if the Devs were to pipe up and say definitively that the drop chance is 10%, there would still be someone that never gets a drop in 100s of attempts and then you get the lucky guy that gets a drop every run.  Both will argue blindly that the quoted 10% is wrong.

It's RnG, it's sh*t, unless they make all drop mechanics like the gauntlet in Doom where every run with no reward increases your chance next time then you really are bowing down to real life luck to get what you want.

But they can say 10%.  That does not mean that if you do 10 of them that you will get a leg, that means that every kill has a 10% to get a leg so yes you could do 1000 and never get one because the RNG hates or you could get one the very first time you did it because the RNG loved you that one time.  People get way to hung up on all these %s thing they somehow guarantee you something, they do not

Foos said:

Hi guys,  I'm at 101 Devour spawns now.  Wondering if anyone ever hit 200-300?  It feels like they are never going to drop.  I did get one before from the other spawn that has it,  the one with the pixie dragons or whatever they are called.  Took 70-75ish I'd guess that time.  This time I know exactly how many times I've done it because I am saving the gem bag to keep track.  Just wondering if anyone else has any thoughts on this because my god it's terrible.

I always get 100% drop rate from the VS monster... luckily it's not shard bound yet, smart dev. edit: I mean the old dev.

Yui_Zii_Ariya said:

And herein lies the subjective aspect of RnG.  Even if the Devs were to pipe up and say definitively that the drop chance is 10%, there would still be someone that never gets a drop in 100s of attempts and then you get the lucky guy that gets a drop every run.  Both will argue blindly that the quoted 10% is wrong.

It's RnG, it's sh*t, unless they make all drop mechanics like the gauntlet in Doom where every run with no reward increases your chance next time then you really are bowing down to real life luck to get what you want.

I ran it some more.  Up to nearly 140 runs and still haven't seen any artifact drop.  I'm going to suggest the code might actually be broken right now because I've done this before and I experienced a drop every 15 on average and never more then 30 runs between a drop.  I've gone well over 100 without any drop let alone the drop I want.  I think I'm about done with this.

Foos said:

I ran it some more.  Up to nearly 140 runs and still haven't seen any artifact drop.  I'm going to suggest the code might actually be broken right now because I've done this before and I experienced a drop every 15 on average and never more then 30 runs between a drop.  I've gone well over 100 without any drop let alone the drop I want.  I think I'm about done with this.

Don't give up, it happens in the end.

I've done easily a 1,000 roofs, and Medusas, and never had a single Cameo drop, or Slither drop.

I did 60 of the Yukio earring quests, and never received the earrings, which was like a 1 in 8 chance.

I also did 100's of runs for the Insane Tinker leggings - I did eventually get this one. The only success I have ever had haha. This is why they currently sell for 100m on Atlantic, because they just never drop. When I got mine, I was happy to sell for 50m.

The funny thing is, my 10 yr old son pops along, and gets the Gargoyle SSI chest on like his 1st run, so the luck streaks really are that streaky. Another fun one to try, is the Raptors gargoyle throwing weapon, this certainly does drop, I've farmed a few now, but for such a basic item, this takes a lot of work, and shows you how many you have to kill (I think 400 in some cases).

This is why I hate RNG.

I had a similar experience trying to get berserker's breastplate for my gargoyle bladeweaver. After just over 90 tries a guild mate took pity on me and decided to help. She got it in under 10!  If you're not using luck, try adding some, even if it's only from the statue.

I did manage to get legs of the insane tinker on my 43 run through. I saw no other artifacts in that time so was a lucky drop.

Riner said:

I did manage to get legs of the insane tinker on my 43 run through. I saw no other artifacts in that time so was a lucky drop.

i keep count of gems this time and i got a Pillar of Strength after 46 runs. I will keep count again for the next drop. 

I've been keeping count first drop at 44 runs - tinker legs. Second drop at 45 runs - pillar of Strength. Third drop 4 runs later - Storm caller. Looks like lucky drops to me. :-)

 I farm the Wyvern A LOT,  I average a tinker legs every 27 wyverns sometimes more sometimes less, have got 3 tinker legs in 7 wyverns before and gone 150 without getting anything.   a Storm caller about 1 in 50 and a Pillar 1 in 115. I run a tamer with max luck for the fairy dragon spawn and I am a firm believe that luck plays a major role in the frequency of drops there.  I have ran toons with no luck and rarely get any mini boss drops. 1500 luck the averages start going up.  But even if the drop rate is 90% you would still hit patches where the RNG wheel of fortune constantly lands in the 10% no drop slice of the pie.  I have also come to believe that some characters when created are just born with the RNG favoring them more than others.  I have two identical characters with identical gear, and one regularly gets drops and the other almost never gets drops, did an experiment with that a few years ago and killed 500 wyverns on each toon the unlucky toon got 2 tinkers legs out of 500  the lucky toon got 18 drops in 500 12 legs  5 storm callers 1 pillar.  Make of it what you will.

Tyrath said:

 I farm the Wyvern A LOT,  I average a tinker legs every 27 wyverns sometimes more sometimes less, have got 3 tinker legs in 7 wyverns before and gone 150 without getting anything.   a Storm caller about 1 in 50 and a Pillar 1 in 115. I run a tamer with max luck for the fairy dragon spawn and I am a firm believe that luck plays a major role in the frequency of drops there.  I have ran toons with no luck and rarely get any mini boss drops. 1500 luck the averages start going up.  But even if the drop rate is 90% you would still hit patches where the RNG wheel of fortune constantly lands in the 10% no drop slice of the pie.  I have also come to believe that some characters when created are just born with the RNG favoring them more than others.  I have two identical characters with identical gear, and one regularly gets drops and the other almost never gets drops, did an experiment with that a few years ago and killed 500 wyverns on each toon the unlucky toon got 2 tinkers legs out of 500  the lucky toon got 18 drops in 500 12 legs  5 storm callers 1 pillar.  Make of it what you will.

I have two identical characters with identical gear, and one regularly gets drops and the other almost never gets drops, did an experiment with that a few years ago and killed 500 wyverns on each toon the unlucky toon got 2 tinkers legs out of 500  the lucky toon got 18 drops in 500 12 legs  5 storm callers 1 pillar.  Make of it what you will.

Well, if everything else in your test was the same, only the character changed, then, the only different thing is the character itself....

Does this mean that, for some odd reasons, some characters get born with higher luck then other characters ?

@Kyronix , how is this possible ?

popps said:

Tyrath said:

 I farm the Wyvern A LOT,  I average a tinker legs every 27 wyverns sometimes more sometimes less, have got 3 tinker legs in 7 wyverns before and gone 150 without getting anything.   a Storm caller about 1 in 50 and a Pillar 1 in 115. I run a tamer with max luck for the fairy dragon spawn and I am a firm believe that luck plays a major role in the frequency of drops there.  I have ran toons with no luck and rarely get any mini boss drops. 1500 luck the averages start going up.  But even if the drop rate is 90% you would still hit patches where the RNG wheel of fortune constantly lands in the 10% no drop slice of the pie.  I have also come to believe that some characters when created are just born with the RNG favoring them more than others.  I have two identical characters with identical gear, and one regularly gets drops and the other almost never gets drops, did an experiment with that a few years ago and killed 500 wyverns on each toon the unlucky toon got 2 tinkers legs out of 500  the lucky toon got 18 drops in 500 12 legs  5 storm callers 1 pillar.  Make of it what you will.

I have two identical characters with identical gear, and one regularly gets drops and the other almost never gets drops, did an experiment with that a few years ago and killed 500 wyverns on each toon the unlucky toon got 2 tinkers legs out of 500  the lucky toon got 18 drops in 500 12 legs  5 storm callers 1 pillar.  Make of it what you will.

Well, if everything else in your test was the same, only the character changed, then, the only different thing is the character itself....

Does this mean that, for some odd reasons, some characters get born with higher luck then other characters ?

@ Kyronix , how is this possible ?

Are you sure it's luck that is affecting this?
Odds are, this has more to do with the RNG, how it operates, and how it's seeded, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generator_attack

ForeverFun said:

Are you sure it's luck that is affecting this?
Odds are, this has more to do with the RNG, how it operates, and how it's seeded, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generator_attack

1,000 Wyvern kills in 2 sets of 500 kills with IDENTICAL characters, is quite a large and time consuming test to span a sufficiently large time to account for how it operates, I would imagine.

If so, then the only thing that changes is the character.

Which it would lead one to guess that, perhaps, when created, some characters are created with a better in-game Luck as others, who knows how ?

ForeverFun said:

popps said:

Tyrath said:

 I farm the Wyvern A LOT,  I average a tinker legs every 27 wyverns sometimes more sometimes less, have got 3 tinker legs in 7 wyverns before and gone 150 without getting anything.   a Storm caller about 1 in 50 and a Pillar 1 in 115. I run a tamer with max luck for the fairy dragon spawn and I am a firm believe that luck plays a major role in the frequency of drops there.  I have ran toons with no luck and rarely get any mini boss drops. 1500 luck the averages start going up.  But even if the drop rate is 90% you would still hit patches where the RNG wheel of fortune constantly lands in the 10% no drop slice of the pie.  I have also come to believe that some characters when created are just born with the RNG favoring them more than others.  I have two identical characters with identical gear, and one regularly gets drops and the other almost never gets drops, did an experiment with that a few years ago and killed 500 wyverns on each toon the unlucky toon got 2 tinkers legs out of 500  the lucky toon got 18 drops in 500 12 legs  5 storm callers 1 pillar.  Make of it what you will.

I have two identical characters with identical gear, and one regularly gets drops and the other almost never gets drops, did an experiment with that a few years ago and killed 500 wyverns on each toon the unlucky toon got 2 tinkers legs out of 500  the lucky toon got 18 drops in 500 12 legs  5 storm callers 1 pillar.  Make of it what you will.

Well, if everything else in your test was the same, only the character changed, then, the only different thing is the character itself....

Does this mean that, for some odd reasons, some characters get born with higher luck then other characters ?

@ Kyronix , how is this possible ?

Are you sure it's luck that is affecting this?
Odds are, this has more to do with the RNG, how it operates, and how it's seeded, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generator_attack

Back when Draconi was investigating RNG, I vaguely remember there being a post about characters being assigned a number at creation. And that number plays a part in RNG. It would help explain why some characters are more prone to drops than others if there’s some kind of multiplier or something going on. 

This just proves that the UO RNG LOVES certain player/char. more than others.  Your Char.s may end up the same but every char gets there a different way and IMHO I think UO remembers every one of them somehow.

Maximus_Neximus said:

ForeverFun said:

popps said:

Well, if everything else in your test was the same, only the character changed, then, the only different thing is the character itself....

Does this mean that, for some odd reasons, some characters get born with higher luck then other characters ?

@ Kyronix , how is this possible ?

Are you sure it's luck that is affecting this?
Odds are, this has more to do with the RNG, how it operates, and how it's seeded, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generator_attack

Back when Draconi was investigating RNG, I vaguely remember there being a post about characters being assigned a number at creation. And that number plays a part in RNG. It would help explain why some characters are more prone to drops than others if there’s some kind of multiplier or something going on. 

From that description, it might be as simple as srand(player_id) followed by calls to rand(), and that could be flawed, at least according the wikipedia article.

https://www.ibm.com/docs/en/i/7.4?topic=functions-srand-set-seed-rand-function

popps said:

ForeverFun said:

Are you sure it's luck that is affecting this?
Odds are, this has more to do with the RNG, how it operates, and how it's seeded, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generator_attack

1,000 Wyvern kills in 2 sets of 500 kills with IDENTICAL characters, is quite a large and time consuming test to span a sufficiently large time to account for how it operates, I would imagine.

If so, then the only thing that changes is the character.

Which it would lead one to guess that, perhaps, when created, some characters are created with a better in-game Luck as others, who knows how ?

@popps,

If you read the wikipedia page, and the "see also" pages, there are other considerations.

It may be more than just "only thing that changes is the character".  What time did the characters logon, what items are they wearing, what are their skill numbers, etc.   It's not known to us what influences the RNG.

On the other hand, if the devs published the code for the RNG, that would clear things up.

The devs (or tester) could also easily test the RNG by directly invoking it, performing an analysis of the output results.  Doesn't need to be done in the game.

A sample size of 500-1000 based on in game observations isn't great to draw many conclusions from.  

Lord_Frodo said:

This just proves that the UO RNG LOVES certain player/char. more than others.  Your Char.s may end up the same but every char gets there a different way and IMHO I think UO remembers every one of them somehow.

No hard proof, just theories.  Would be easy for devs to clear it up.  Could solicit potential improvements at the same time, if it was described in more detail.

Maximus_Neximus said:

Back when Draconi was investigating RNG, I vaguely remember there being a post about characters being assigned a number at creation. And that number plays a part in RNG. It would help explain why some characters are more prone to drops than others if there’s some kind of multiplier or something going on. 

Now that you mention that, I seem to get a similar recallection of mentions of a distinguished number or paramether (or set of...) being assigned at every character upon their creation...

I cannot seem to be able to remember, whether I read it on a Post or else as mentioned by a Developer, or whether it was some rumor heard by other players...

If this was to be the case, though, which I do not know, I fail to understand the purpose of having some characters be created with a higher likeliness to have drops as compared to other characters...

I mean, what the f*** ??

popps said:

Maximus_Neximus said:

Back when Draconi was investigating RNG, I vaguely remember there being a post about characters being assigned a number at creation. And that number plays a part in RNG. It would help explain why some characters are more prone to drops than others if there’s some kind of multiplier or something going on. 

Now that you mention that, I seem to get a similar recallection of a distinguished number being assigned at every character upon their creation...

If this was to be the case, though, which I do not know, I fail to understand the purpose of having some characters be created with a higher likeliness to have drops as compared to other characters...

I mean, what the f*** ??

Don't go down the rabbit hole this is all unproven speculation...

Maximus_Neximus said:
Back when Draconi was investigating RNG, I vaguely remember there being a post about characters being assigned a number at creation. And that number plays a part in RNG. It would help explain why some characters are more prone to drops than others if there’s some kind of multiplier or something going on. 

An interesting theory. Can I throw in another speculative consideration?  When you transfer a character, the character that comes back isn't quite the same, as anyone who left a ship in the water will know, the ship no longer recognises the returning character as the owner.  I have a 'personal attendant' deed that is now useless because I transferred the owning character. The deed now has no recognisable owner and cannot be used to place an attendant.
So, if you took your 'RNG unlucky' character on a round trip to another shard, would it change the character's RNG luck?

Tyrath said:

  Nothing conclusive about 500/500 other than I spent way too much time farming the wyvern LOL.  But it does offer some evidence that some characters (Lets not say luck) Rather A Pie, get a larger slice of the pie for the RNG to land in than others.

  XFR may change that the Characters I use for this were born on Origin and have never left Origin.  Might at some point send the one that rarely gets anything to Legends and Back and do another 500 on him and see what happens.  Its not like farming the Fairy Dragon Spawn is not profitable even without one of the 3 wyvern drops.

  And NO I am not going to run the spawn 20,000,000 times 🙂  It took 6 weeks farming it hard on each character to pull 500 runs.

  Another Consideration that may or may not come into play is the Pet I used.  The pets were different.  One was a Chiv CU and the other A Chiv Lesser Hiryu.  It had not occurred to me until now that the pet used could Possibly influence the RNG.

  Pretty sure most of us have that one character that we without thinking much about it go to.  Because that character hits more often, hits for more damage more often, defends better and last longer in  a fight. Or that favorite pet that you migh have 2-3 scrolled and trained exactly the same but that one always seems to do much better than the others.

  Hypothetical is all of this as none of us can say one way or the other conclusively.  But I speculate that there is a 1-20 scale (Example only)  with 10 being average and most characters get radomly assigned 8-16  A very few hit the 17-20  and some get real lucky and get 1-7 and struggle in every aspect of the game. As stated it would take running tens of millions of simulations to find conclusive trends in any of this.  But I think Draconi was on to something and eventually would have solved one of the greatest mysteries in the game.

 Another Consideration that may or may not come into play is the Pet I used.  The pets were different.  One was a Chiv CU and the other A Chiv Lesser Hiryu.  It had not occurred to me until now that the pet used could Possibly influence the RNG.

I am not sure as of "why" using different pets would yield different results in getting "lucky" drops...

I mean, it would be, as if a Dexer using a Weapon rather then another one, would then get a difference in their luck at a drop....

There is one other thing which I seem to remember being discussed from back in the days (but my memory could fail me, having so much time gone through.....).

I have been trying to find some of those very old posts to try either confirm or deny what my memory seems to remember in this regard, but after so much time, I have been fruitless in my searches...

What I seem to remember is, that back in the days I kinda remember some players suspecting that, "somehow", Ultima Online code might have "preferred" Dexers to Tamers when having to decide the chances to award a lucky drop to that character....

That is, using a Dexer, for some reasons, is what I seem to remember reading in Forums, or hearing from fellow players back in the days, Years back, might bring better results in getting "lucky" drops as compared to using a Tamer with a pet.

I have no idea whether these were just rumors or back then, some players did some extensive testing to have at least a shiver of a doubt/hint that something along those lines could have been going on with UO drops chances, but that's what I seem to remember, unless my memory is not playing some trick on me....

Also, back then, there were lots of the most varied rumors coming and going about how Ultima Online's code worked so, this could have been just another one of those unfounded rumors, who knows....

popps said:

Tyrath said:

  Nothing conclusive about 500/500 other than I spent way too much time farming the wyvern LOL.  But it does offer some evidence that some characters (Lets not say luck) Rather A Pie, get a larger slice of the pie for the RNG to land in than others.

  XFR may change that the Characters I use for this were born on Origin and have never left Origin.  Might at some point send the one that rarely gets anything to Legends and Back and do another 500 on him and see what happens.  Its not like farming the Fairy Dragon Spawn is not profitable even without one of the 3 wyvern drops.

  And NO I am not going to run the spawn 20,000,000 times 🙂  It took 6 weeks farming it hard on each character to pull 500 runs.

  Another Consideration that may or may not come into play is the Pet I used.  The pets were different.  One was a Chiv CU and the other A Chiv Lesser Hiryu.  It had not occurred to me until now that the pet used could Possibly influence the RNG.

  Pretty sure most of us have that one character that we without thinking much about it go to.  Because that character hits more often, hits for more damage more often, defends better and last longer in  a fight. Or that favorite pet that you migh have 2-3 scrolled and trained exactly the same but that one always seems to do much better than the others.

  Hypothetical is all of this as none of us can say one way or the other conclusively.  But I speculate that there is a 1-20 scale (Example only)  with 10 being average and most characters get radomly assigned 8-16  A very few hit the 17-20  and some get real lucky and get 1-7 and struggle in every aspect of the game. As stated it would take running tens of millions of simulations to find conclusive trends in any of this.  But I think Draconi was on to something and eventually would have solved one of the greatest mysteries in the game.

 Another Consideration that may or may not come into play is the Pet I used.  The pets were different.  One was a Chiv CU and the other A Chiv Lesser Hiryu.  It had not occurred to me until now that the pet used could Possibly influence the RNG.

I am not sure as of "why" using different pets would yield different results in getting "lucky" drops...

I mean, it would be, as if a Dexer using a Weapon rather then another one, would then get a difference in their luck at a drop....

There is one other thing which I seem to remember being discussed from back in the days (but my memory could fail me, having so much time gone through.....).

I have been trying to find some of those very old posts to try either confirm or deny what my memory seems to remember in this regard, but after so much time, I have been fruitless in my searches...

What I seem to remember is, that back in the days I kinda remember some players suspecting that, "somehow", Ultima Online code might have "preferred" Dexers to Tamers when having to decide the chances to award a lucky drop to that character....

That is, using a Dexer, for some reasons, is what I seem to remember reading in Forums, or hearing from fellow players back in the days, Years back, might bring better results in getting "lucky" drops as compared to using a Tamer with a pet.

I have no idea whether these were just rumors or back then, some players did some extensive testing to have at least a shiver of a doubt/hint that something along those lines could have been going on with UO drops chances, but that's what I seem to remember, unless my memory is not playing some trick on me....

Also, back then, there were lots of the most varied rumors coming and going about how Ultima Online's code worked so, this could have been just another one of those unfounded rumors, who knows....

To give everyone an update on this.  I ended up doing the spawn another 150-200 times.  I got 5 or 6 pillars of strength and 3 or 4 more storm callers.  i'm taking another break from this.  Strongly considering a third party site.  This spawn is the worst in the game.  I have about 1500+ of the essence now if anyone wants it.

Foos said:

To give everyone an update on this.  I ended up doing the spawn another 150-200 times.  I got 5 or 6 pillars of strength and 3 or 4 more storm callers.  i'm taking another break from this.  Strongly considering a third party site.  This spawn is the worst in the game.  I have about 1500+ of the essence now if anyone wants it.

what's your luck by the way? 

Aragorn said:

Foos said:

To give everyone an update on this.  I ended up doing the spawn another 150-200 times.  I got 5 or 6 pillars of strength and 3 or 4 more storm callers.  i'm taking another break from this.  Strongly considering a third party site.  This spawn is the worst in the game.  I have about 1500+ of the essence now if anyone wants it.

what's your luck by the way? 

I was running with 0 for a long time,  during that long streak of 100 runs with no artifacts zero luck.  I bumped it to 1200 and I got one or two but when I bumped it to 1600 I started seeing regular drops.  Just not the ones I want.  Got another Pillar this morning.  Heh. 

Foos said:

Aragorn said:

Foos said:

To give everyone an update on this.  I ended up doing the spawn another 150-200 times.  I got 5 or 6 pillars of strength and 3 or 4 more storm callers.  i'm taking another break from this.  Strongly considering a third party site.  This spawn is the worst in the game.  I have about 1500+ of the essence now if anyone wants it.

what's your luck by the way? 

I was running with 0 for a long time,  during that long streak of 100 runs with no artifacts zero luck.  I bumped it to 1200 and I got one or two but when I bumped it to 1600 I started seeing regular drops.  Just not the ones I want.  Got another Pillar this morning.  Heh. 

so luck does work and you just need to get another x drops to get the specific one you want