Based on my experience if cap is close to 255 repair usually works on first try. But at a certain level repair starts to fail more often and item starts to wear out much faster so it is better to just forgo repairing the item at that point. Usually for me, I stop repairing the item at around 190 or so because failures start to be more often at that point.
None of the parts included in this quote are correct.
A 4/255 item has the same failure rate as a 4/100 item.
Repairs fail more often if you wait until the item has low durability. Some say that is 20 or 40 or 100. I usually wait till I get the message and the item is 1 - 5. I fail less than 50% at those numbers. I do use Mariahs check list during events because you are constantly fighting. So I do not have to worry about repairs until the next day.
There is no reason to stop at 190. I have imbued weapons that the maker forgot to use powder on. They last many months. I have talismans that are in the 60s because I could not figure out which item was giving me the message, they have lasted years.
If you are going to play these events for an hour or more. Use Mariahs pre play check list so that you can have an enjoyable time.
This is correct from your post:
Agree cap goes down one point with every repair attempt regardless of the result.
Which leads to:
I usually do that too... but it can happen, that I see an item that is, say, at like 40-50 durability points so not yet "ripe" for a repair (each repair drops the CAP 1 point, and fails too) and say to myself that I will repair it a bit later...
Then, I get into the fights at Tokuno and totally forget about it.... the continuous fighting wears down the item and I find myself, if I can see the warning messages on screen, with an item that has only left a handful of durability points... as I said, it happened today with 1 item left with only 1 durability point when I finally saw the message in the midst of all other on screen messages...
So, this method is not working for you. Why are you arguing?
You will find repairing when items are below 100 at your pre play check will over all wear out a lot slower than those you decide not to repair and wait for the message.
What exactly are you expecting the devs to do?
If you are repairing smith items, make a deed while holding a +60 hammer to make 180 deeds. I doubt those deeds will ever fail.
I always hold a +60 hammer when making anything but iron barding deeds, always exceptional.
It does take a charge away even if you craft with another tool.
What exactly are you expecting the devs to do?
As I understand, currently the amount of Durability points at which the repair warning message comes on screen is at 5 points left.
Assuming that each point lost the client sends out 1 warning message, this means 5 messages to be seen in the cluttering of the screen that happens when one fights with the rest of text messages, untill the Durability of the item reaches 0.
If, for example, the "trigger point" of the repair item warning messages was set to 20 Durability points, rather then 5 as it is now, the player would have like 20 messages to see before the item's Durability reaches 0, rather then the 5 that there are now.
While it "can" be that out of 5 messages none gets seen, in a screen that is full of other text messages about the ongoing fights, when those messages are 20, because the trigger condition is no longer 5 Durability points but, rather, 20 points, the chances that at least 1 of those repairs warning messages is seen before the Durability reaches 0 are 4 times higher.... (20 instead of 5).
And, swapping a digit from 5 to 20 in the code, I imagine (but am not sure that would be the only thing that would need to be changed...) would not be "that" much of a big issue, wouldn't it ?